Traders profit from bets on Maduro's capture as prediction markets react swiftly

US traders made big profits betting on Maduro’s capture to take place in January, with the arrest of the Venezuelan president appearing to have been anticipated on prediction markets where people bet on future events.

Prediction market prices linked to the fate of Venezuela’s president moved from low single-digit probabilities to near certainty within hours, highlighting the speed at which sentiment can shift on event-driven platforms.

Data published on the crypto-powered platform Polymarket showed a sharp repricing of contracts tied to Nicolás Maduro in the hours before a public announcement by US President Donald Trump that the Venezuelan leader had been seized.

The Guardian reported that traders began repositioning late Friday, with implied odds moving quickly through the early hours of Saturday.

At 3 p.m. GMT on January 2, the market “Maduro out by January 31, 2026?” carried a 5.5% implied probability. That figure rose to 11% by 6 a.m. on Jan. 3, then to 28.5% at 6:30 a.m. and 56.5% by 7:30 a.m. By 9:30 a.m., the contract traded at nearly 99%, according to Polymarket data.

An apparent new trader invested $30,000 in the “Maduro out by January 31, 2026?” market late Friday. After Trump’s announcement on Saturday morning, that position appeared to generate profits of $436,759.61 within hours. The account was anonymous and identified only by a blockchain address.

Dennis Kelleher, chief executive of Better Markets, told CBS: “This particular bet has all the hallmarks of a trade based on inside information.” A small number of other users also made tens of thousands of dollars from related wagers.

A related contract, “Maduro in US custody by January 31?”, also showed early activity. Two trades were matched at prices of 0.22 and 0.11, implying 22% and 11% probabilities, before the market moved above 0.99 following the announcement.

Prediction markets allow users to wager against each other on binary outcomes, such as yes/no events or higher/lower results. Markets range from political outcomes to financial indicators, including daily movements in the S&P 500 index.

According to a report from crypto firms Dune and Keyrock, total prediction market wagering grew from under $100 million in early 2024 to more than $13 billion. The industry’s two most visible platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, count Donald Trump Jr. among their advisers.

Congressman Ritchie Torres has introduced legislation seeking to bar government employees from trading on prediction markets when they possess “material nonpublic information” related to a bet. A Kalshi spokesperson said the platform “explicitly prohibits insider trading of any form, including government employees trading on prediction markets related to government activity.”

While insider trading is illegal in securities markets, fewer formal restrictions apply to prediction markets, leaving trading behavior and information access under increased scrutiny following the Venezuela-related wagers.