Google to allow ads for CFTC-regulated prediction markets in the US from January 21

Google confirmed that it will allow advertising from prediction market operators starting later this month. However, advertisers will be required to follow a series of guidelines in order to be featured.

Prediction market operators seeking to advertise on Google in the US will be required to complete the platform’s certification process and meet federal commodities regulators' registration standards under a policy effective January 21, 2026.

Under the updated advertising rules, Google will permit ads only for exchange-listed event contracts offered by federally regulated entities. The policy applies solely in the US and limits eligibility to platforms authorized by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) or to brokerages registered with the National Futures Association (NFA) that provide access to approved Designated Contract Markets.

“Google is updating its advertising policies on January 21, 2026, to permit ads for Prediction Markets (defined as platforms that facilitate the listing of or provide customer access to Exchange-Listed Event Contracts related to economics, sports, or current events) in the United States, but only for federally regulated entities,” the company said.

Licensing and certification requirements

To qualify, firms must either be licensed by the CFTC as DCMs, which are permitted to offer exchange-listed derivatives such as yes/no event contracts, or be registered with the NFA to provide third-party access to products listed by an eligible DCM.

All prospective advertisers must also complete Google’s internal certification process. According to the company, “All ads, products, and landing pages must comply with all local laws, financial regulations, industry standards and all other Google Ads Policies.”

Binary options remain excluded

The revised policy continues to prohibit all binary options advertising. The ban covers offshore exchanges, affiliated educational websites, signal providers, and broker review sites. Google said the distinction between prediction markets and binary options is based on consumer protection considerations, citing associations between binary options and misleading promotions, systemic abuse, and financial harm.

Prediction markets that meet federal licensing requirements are treated as supervised financial instruments under Google’s Financial Services advertising policies, rather than retail products available for unrestricted promotion.

Market implications

By conditioning advertising access on federal oversight, Google ties market visibility on its platform to regulatory status. Firms that have obtained CFTC approval or NFA registration gain access to one of the most widely used digital advertising channels in the US, while unregulated operators remain excluded.

Participants in the US prediction markets sector include CFTC-regulated platforms and brokerages such as Kalshi, Coinbase, Polymarket, and Robinhood.

Google’s advertising eligibility carries commercial relevance due to the platform’s reach. Estimates indicate the search engine processes about 99,000 requests per second, or roughly 8.5 billion queries per day, with some data sets placing daily volume higher.