Macau trims 2025 gaming revenue forecast to $28.3B amid weak casino performance

The Macau government has lowered its 2025 gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast by 5% to MOP228 billion ($28.3 billion), citing weaker-than-expected casino performance in the first five months of the year and broader economic uncertainties.

The revised estimate, announced Tuesday following an Executive Council review of the amended 2025 budget, brings the monthly average forecast down to MOP19 billion ($2.35 billion). Authorities noted that while May’s performance surpassed MOP21 billion ($2.60 billion), year-to-date GGR has fallen short of initial expectations.

“The gaming revenue forecast was revised due to several factors, including global economic uncertainties and changing consumption patterns among tourists, particularly in gaming,” said Ho In Mui, deputy director of the Financial Services Bureau.

GGR in the first five months of 2025 totalled MOP97.71 billion ($12.1 billion), representing an average of MOP19.54 billion per month. The new full-year projection implies just a 0.54% year-on-year increase from 2024’s MOP226.78 billion — a significant revision from the previously forecast 5.8% growth.

Ho said the updated figures still support the government’s ability to maintain fiscal balance. “With this new forecast, the Macau government can still achieve a balanced budget for 2025,” she said.

CreditSights analysts Nicholas Chen and David Bussey described the downward revision as expected. “This is not a complete surprise given the softer-than-required monthly GGR prints since the start of the year; we view the new target as more conservative and in line with the sector’s performance YTD,” they wrote in a note.

The government also revised its fiscal revenue forecast for 2025 down 3.7% to MOP116.5 billion, while raising overall expenditure by 2.5% to MOP116.2 billion. Spending increases include MOP1.75 billion earmarked this year for the University of Macau’s new Hengqin campus — part of a RMB7 billion (MOP8.4 billion) investment scheduled through 2030 — and MOP340 million for the Science and Technology Development Fund.

Meanwhile, Macau’s public infrastructure investment plan, known as PIDDA, has been trimmed by MOP190 million to approximately MOP19.59 billion.

The government’s annual cash handout scheme — in place since 2008 — has come under fresh scrutiny following new eligibility rules. Residents will now need to remain in Macau for at least 183 days in 2024 to qualify.

Under the current arrangement, permanent residents are slated to receive MOP10,000 in July, while non-permanent residents will receive MOP6,000.

Despite weaker overall spending by tourists, visitor arrivals in April rose 13% year-on-year, helping offset an 11% drop in GGR per visitor, according to CreditSights. GGR for May was up 5% from the previous year, reaching 82% of pre-pandemic levels — the strongest performance since Macau reopened its borders.

The Labour Day Golden Week holiday from May 1–5 contributed to a 41% surge in visitation during that period, further supporting May’s higher-than-average casino revenue.