JP Morgan forecasts Macau gaming revenue rising 5–6% in 2026

JP Morgan projects Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) will grow 5–6% in 2026, driven by strength in the mass-market and slot segments, while VIP revenue is expected to decline following a strong comparison base in 2025.

In a research note, the bank forecasts mass and slot GGR growth of 7–8% in 2026. VIP gaming revenue is projected to fall by around 5%, reflecting tougher comparisons after a robust performance last year.

Analysts expect moderate but sustainable expansion for the sector, with industry profit growth of 6–7% set to outpace top-line revenue gains.

“We forecast the industry profit growth (+6–7%) to finally – albeit modestly – outpace top-line growth (+5–6%) in 2026E,” the analysts wrote, adding that the trend would narrow the profit flow-through gap seen in 2025, when EBITDA growth lagged overall GGR.

Macau’s recovery momentum strengthened throughout the past year, with quarterly results exceeding expectations and seasonal norms. The fourth quarter delivered the city’s strongest gaming revenue performance in six years, reinforcing signs of a sustained rebound after a slow start to the year.

December GGR rose 14.8% year-on-year to MOP20.9 billion ($2.60 billion), reaching 91% of pre-pandemic levels. “The December print was slightly below consensus, but this reflects expectation creep,” JP Morgan analysts wrote, pointing to upward revisions in prior weeks rather than weakening demand.

For the full year, Macau’s GGR climbed 9% to MOP247.4 billion ($30.83 billion), nearly double the bank’s initial forecast of 5%, underscoring the pace of the market’s recovery heading into 2026.