Macau GGR seen rising 16% in 4Q25 as momentum extends into 2026 – Morgan Stanley

Macau’s casino sector is set for another strong quarter with gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast to rise 16% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by continued post-pandemic momentum and resilient visitation, according to investment bank Morgan Stanley.

Following a recent visit to Macau, the bank said the city continues to show “strong GGR momentum, albeit without margin expansion,” with growth expected to remain above 10% through April 2026. Analysts noted that consensus forecasts imply just 9% EBITDA growth in the fourth quarter, “significantly below the GGR growth expectation of 16 percent,” which they said “could mean upside to current EBITDA expectations.”

The upbeat outlook comes as November gaming results are also expected to show around 16% year-on-year growth, extending performance following a robust Golden Week.

Morgan Stanley expressed particular confidence in MGM China and Galaxy Entertainment heading into late 2025. MGM China “reported a 100-basis-point GGR share gain in October versus the third quarter,” supported by more than 10% annual growth in its highest-end customer segment and the launch of its Alpha Gaming Club. Galaxy is expected to see EBITDA improve in the fourth quarter, helped by lower costs after one-off marketing expenses tied to Capella pre-opening activities in the third quarter.

Meanwhile, Macau’s 2026 public budget projects that local casinos could generate MOP236 billion ($29.28 billion) in GGR next year. The government has revised its 2025 forecast downward from MOP240 billion to MOP228 billion, citing economic volatility.

Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai told legislators the economy still faces “significant headwinds” amid internal and external pressures, with the budget bill describing current conditions as “imbalanced development.” Authorities highlighted ongoing recovery efforts, including measures aimed at easing the city’s housing slump.

Under a new housing policy, buyers purchasing homes valued at MOP6 million will be exempt from stamp duty, doubling the previous exemption cap of MOP3 million and extending benefits to some past first-time buyers.

For 2026, the government expects MOP118.8 billion ($14.82 billion) in revenue and MOP113.5 billion in expenditure, resulting in a MOP5.3 billion surplus. Planned public investment includes more than MOP18.08 billion under the PIDDA scheme for long-term infrastructure and technology development.