Early November data shows slight rebound

Las Vegas promotions show modest impact as Strip room rates weaken, says Truist Securities

2025-10-08
Reading time 1:48 min

Las Vegas hotel room rates weakened through the third quarter and into October despite aggressive promotions by tourism officials, with analysts pointing to only modest effects from the city’s latest marketing push.

Truist Securities said its latest Las Vegas Strip room rate survey showed a soft third quarter, with proxy rates down 5%, while rates fell 7% for MGM Resorts International and 17% for Caesars Entertainment. Weekend rates were down 3%, 6%, and 18% respectively, while weekday rates declined 8%, 7%, and 13%.

“This is slightly worse than our last published survey, which had total Strip Proxy/MGM/Caesars -4%/-14%/-11%,” said Barry Jonas, analyst at Truist Securities. “We think the Strip was modestly impacted by some increased promo activity to help fight the ‘Vegas is expensive’ narrative.”

Jonas said October was tracking weaker than expected, with room rates down 5% for proxy, 15% for MGM, and 12% for Caesars. However, early November data pointed to a slight rebound, with rates up 2% for proxy, 3% for MGM, and 1% for Caesars.

“This aligns with management commentary pointing to November as a possible inflection point and potentially driving any fourth-quarter improvements, with MGM seeing the bulk of improvements from our last published survey,” he said. “We expect to hear more this week at G2E, but if November inflection continues into December, we could see the Vegas stocks of Caesars and MGM working better for the first quarter of 2026.”

In late September, the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) organized a five-day citywide sale offering discounts on resorts, restaurants and entertainment to help counter slowing visitation. The agency told the Las Vegas Review-Journal the event “was a huge success,” though Truist noted the overall impact on demand remained limited.

Jonas said investors were focused on potential recovery later in the year. “Heading into our G2E meetings, operators sounded positive for the fourth quarter and 2026, given the stronger event/convention calendar,” he said.

Meanwhile, regional U.S. casino markets showed steadier momentum. J.P. Morgan analyst Daniel Politzer estimated that total regional gaming revenue rose 2% year over year in September despite an 11% month-over-month drop in visitation. The firm projects third-quarter regional gaming revenue up 4%, the strongest pace since early 2023.

“While a step-down from July/August’s 5% to 6% growth, we still view September’s +2% as decent,” Politzer said. “While this level of gaming revenue growth would typically present a fairly positive setup for regional operators into third quarter earnings, we note second quarter revenue also grew at a similar 4% level, and this was buoyed by promotions with operator net revenue and EBITDA growth trailing gaming revenue growth.”

“Consequently, we prefer a more detailed/nuanced approach given the varying promotional/competitive landscape among operators,” he added.

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