Churchill Downs sets record $349M Kentucky Derby handle despite EBITDA dip

Churchill Downs set a new all-time record for wagering during the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby, with total bets on Derby Day reaching $349 million, an 8.9% increase over last year, the company announced on Monday. Despite the strong performance in betting, adjusted EBITDA for the week is expected to come in $2 million to $4 million lower than in 2024.

The iconic race, known as the “Run for the Roses,” saw Sovereignty capture victory at 7-1 odds, defeating Journalism by a length and a half in front of 147,000 spectators. Sovereignty was owned by Godolphin, trained by William Mott, and ridden by Junior Alvarado.

“We congratulate the connections of Sovereignty on an impressive win over a very talented field of horses,” said Bill Carstanjen, CEO of Churchill Downs Inc. (CDI). “We are thrilled with our performance following the 150th milestone year in 2024 and we will grow the Kentucky Derby in the years to come.”

TwinSpires, CDI’s official betting partner, also posted record figures, with $108 million wagered on Derby Day, up 17% year-on-year. Bets placed specifically on the Derby race itself rose 19.9% to $73 million.

Total wagering for Kentucky Derby Week reached $473.9 million, another record and an increase from $446.6 million last year.

Despite the surge in betting, the company’s adjusted earnings for the event fell short. Analysts attributed the shortfall to weaker-than-expected ticket sales and unfavorable weather in the lead-up to the race.

“The reasons for the missed expectations included the closer-in sales of some newer seating areas and likely poor weather on Derby weekend,” said David Katz, an analyst at Jefferies. Katz noted that $900 million in capital projects originally slated for 2026 were deferred to 2028, impacting near-term earnings forecasts.

Still, Churchill Downs maintained that this year’s event is expected to be among its top two financial performances in history. Jefferies reaffirmed its Buy rating on CDI shares and maintained a $127 price target, reflecting 36% upside potential.

The event also marked a new commercial milestone, with Ford Motor Company becoming the exclusive automotive partner of the Kentucky Derby through 2029.