PredictIt gains regulatory approval to operate as a licensed derivatives exchange

Political prediction market PredictIt has received regulatory approval to operate as a licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) granted licenses to Aristotle, the operator of PredictIt, to run both an exchange and a clearinghouse—critical components for processing trades in prediction markets, Bloomberg reported. The applications had been under review since late 2021.

The move comes amid a surge of CFTC approvals for new prediction market platforms, allowing customers to place wagers on everything from political outcomes to interest rate shifts and sporting events.

PredictIt, which has operated for more than a decade under a CFTC “no-action” letter, faced regulatory challenges after the agency withdrew the letter in 2022. The CFTC argued that PredictIt had not fully complied with the agreement’s requirements, which limited trading primarily to academic purposes and small-dollar amounts. The dispute led to a multiyear lawsuit that PredictIt won in July 2025.

Following the court victory, the CFTC issued a revised no-action letter enabling PredictIt to expand political trading. The new exchange and clearinghouse licenses now place PredictIt on par with other regulated derivatives platforms, including Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com.

Aristotle said the exchange is scheduled to launch in October. “Prediction markets help people understand the future, and this approval allows us to deliver the most robust and transparent version of that vision yet,” John Aristotle Phillips, Chief Executive Officer of Aristotle, said in the statement.