Seaport Research predicts Macau GGR to rise over 9% in H2 2025

Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is expected to climb more than 9% year-on-year in the second half of 2025, driven by improved market sentiment and economic stimulus measures, Seaport Research Partners said.

The forecast builds on a stronger-than-expected second quarter and a pickup in summer activity, despite earlier concerns over China’s macroeconomic outlook.

“Growth has reaccelerated in the last few months,” said Vitaly Umansky, senior analyst at Seaport. “While 2025 had started softly in Macau, our expectation for a summer pickup and strength in the second half is bearing fruit.”

Seaport now projects full-year GGR growth of 7%, with longer-term expectations for sustained annual GGR growth of 7%. This trend, the firm said, is likely to support a compound annual growth rate of 9% in EBITDA across the Macau casino sector. 

“We continue to see Macau as a secular long-term growth market,” Umansky added.

In terms of operator performance, Seaport expects Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment to benefit from market share shifts, while smaller players could see declining share, particularly if the base-mass market recovery outpaces expectations.

“Longer term, market share shifts will benefit Sands China and Galaxy, while smaller operators should see share loss,” Umansky wrote.

Seaport’s outlook also highlighted regional opportunities, including expansion in Singapore, where both Marina Bay Sands, owned by Las Vegas Sands, and Resorts World Sentosa, operated by Genting Singapore, are undergoing multibillion-dollar renovations.

Additionally, Wynn Resorts, parent of Wynn Macau, is developing Wynn Al Marjan Island, a new casino resort in Ras Al Khaimah, United Arab Emirates, with an expected opening in early 2027.

Separately, Seaport downgraded MGM China from “Buy” to “Neutral.”