International edition
June 23, 2021

According to Nomura Instinet report

Macau recovery could take three years, analysts say

Macau recovery could take three years, analysts say
While pent-up demand is anticipated in Macau, social distancing will likely be enforced and the "dreaded" second wave of re-infection is a risk, analysts say.
Macau | 04/14/2020

The timeline is projected to start with a June GGR reboot, and the three-year period is predicated on a list of “common sense restart policies” and the absence of “reinfection.” Macau GGR is estimated to be dropping 80% in Q2, falling 65% in Q3 and then seeing some sequential improvement in Q4. For 2021, Nomura analysts believe GGR can recover to $22.6 billion, or roughly 62% of the 2019 level if the reinfection rate is low.

O

ne of the analyst projections for Macau’s casino sector sees no full recovery from the coronavirus crisis to 2019-level business until 2023.

Analysts with Nomura Group’s Instinet equity research arm have projected a three-year recovery timeline for Macau starting in June, with even that lengthy period predicated on a list of “common sense restart policies” and the absence of “reinfection.”

Analyst Harry Curtis and team see Macau GGR dropping 80% in Q2, falling 65% in Q3 and then seeing some sequential improvement in Q4. While pent-up demand (cabin fever) is anticipated, social distancing will likely be enforced and the "dreaded" second wave of re-infection is a risk, Seeking Alpha reports.

For 2021, Nomura analysts believe that GGR can recover to $22.6 billion, or roughly 62% of the 2019 level if the reinfection rate is low. “To achieve this number, IVS needs to expand to larger, more distant provinces, mass and group visitors must have confidence in health screening protocols at the borders, and social distancing policies on casino floors should be relaxed, thus increasing the number of operational gaming positions during peak periods. An effective vaccine would likely be needed to exceed our 62% (of 2019 GGR) estimate."

As for 2022, the firm estimates that GGR will recover to roughly 90% of 2019 highs, borders, IVS and casino operations would have returned close to normal.

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