Magnho José: “A significant change could take place in Brazil in 2026 with the vote on the bill to legalise casinos”

With more than two decades of experience closely following the sector in Brazil, Magnho José is one of the most attentive and authoritative voices in the national debate on gaming, betting, and lotteries.

Editor of the BNLData website, Magnho regularly addresses, through lectures and industry events, the regulatory evolution of the market and its economic, social and institutional impacts. As head of the Brazilian Institute for Legal Gaming (IJL), he is also actively involved in dialogue between the private sector, public authorities and society, advocating for qualified information, transparency and responsible regulation.

In this exclusive interview with Yogonet, he shares his views on the regulation of the market and his expectations for the coming year.

What is your overall assessment of the first year of regulation of sports betting and online gaming in Brazil? What is still missing for the market to function in a fully structured and organised way?

The assessment of the first year of regulation of sports betting and online gaming in Brazil is quite positive. The country spent six years without regulation, resulting in an uncontrolled market that generated a series of problems, many of which we are still dealing with today.

For the market to function in a fully structured and organised manner, we need greater effectiveness from the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting within the Ministry of Finance in day-to-day operations. The regulatory framework itself was very well executed and is considered one of the best in the world. Now, the focus must shift to daily operational enforcement, and it appears that the Secretariat is moving in this direction through recent regulations, meetings, and the expansion of its structure and professional staff.

What is your view on the proposal to increase taxation on the sector?

The proposal to increase taxation on the betting sector is a cause for concern. When companies acquired their licences, the tax rule was clear: 12% of Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR). Any change to this percentage creates legal uncertainty, as business owners will feel that they have “bought a pig in a poke” or were, quite simply, misled.

The betting sector in Brazil will face this issue repeatedly in discussions with the National Congress. By way of comparison, Caixa lotteries have the lowest payout in the world, at around 32.5%, while in the United States, the average is 55%. This distortion needs to be clearly explained to lawmakers, as sports betting is fundamentally different from lotteries.

Brazil continues to see a strong presence of unauthorised websites. What actually works today to combat the illegal market? How can the work carried out by the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting become more effective?

The illegal market in Brazil remains strong, representing around 50% of total operations. The resources drained into this market could be redirected to the legal sector without the need to increase taxation on regulated betting.

The government must identify the appropriate tools to minimise the challenges posed by illegal betting and to steer bettors towards the regulated market.

How do you view the proliferation of municipal lotteries across Brazil, and what impact does this have on the sector?

The decision of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) in ADPFs 492 and 493 regarding the authority of state lotteries led to the interpretation that municipal lotteries could also operate, as they are federative entities.

More recently, Justice Nunes Marques granted an injunction prohibiting the operation of municipal lotteries. However, this decision will be reviewed by the full bench of the Supreme Court following a request for clarification by Justice Flávio Dino. The agenda for the first half of the year at the Supreme Court will only be published after the recess, and until then, municipal lotteries remain prohibited.

What major moves or changes do you foresee for the gaming sector in 2026?

As for the future of the gaming sector, it is believed that a significant change could take place in 2026 with the vote on Bill 2234/22, which legalises casinos in resort and tourist complexes, as well as bingo and the traditional jogo do bicho.

The expectation is that the bill will be voted on by the Senate in the first half of next year, as presidential and legislative elections will take place in the second half, which would make its consideration more difficult.