Citigroup lifts Macau August GGR forecast to $2.7 billion despite weather hit

Citigroup has raised its forecast for Macau’s August casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) to MOP21.75 billion ($2.70 billion), putting the industry on track for a 10% year-on-year increase and about 90% of pre-pandemic August 2019 levels.

The U.S. bank’s revised outlook, up slightly from its previous MOP21.50 billion estimate, reflects steady gaming demand through mid-August. “Based on industry sources, Macau GGR for the first 17 days of August is likely to have reached circa MOP12.1 billion,” analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau wrote in a Monday note.

They added: “This implies a daily run-rate of about MOP729 million during the previous week (August 11 to 17), a circa 4-percent increase versus that of the first ten days of August 2025 – circa MOP700 million a day, and circa 14-percent higher versus the August 2024 average (circa MOP637 million a day).”

Citi said the growth came even as a midweek “black rainstorm” disrupted the city, underscoring resilience in demand. Market trends diverged, with mass GGR rising around 1–2% month-on-month, while VIP volumes slipped 2–4%, though the VIP hold rate improved. “VIP hold rate appears to be higher than that of the first ten days of August,” Choi and Chau noted.

Citi’s revised forecast implies an average of about MOP689 million in daily GGR for the remainder of the month.

Macau’s casino industry has been on a recovery path in recent months, with July revenues climbing 19% year-on-year to MOP22.13 billion, the highest since January 2020 before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The city has now recorded three consecutive months of strong annual growth.