Melbourne Cup 2025 preview: Early favorites, form, and predictions

The Melbourne Cup is one of the most prestigious horse racing events in the world, and it's no surprise it's named "the race that stops the nation." The 2025 edition, held on the first Tuesday of November at Flemington Racecourse, is expected to attract global attention and significant betting interest. But in a race where winners are determined in split seconds and the outcome can tip either way, finding the clear favourites can be challenging.

This article will discuss early favourites, jockey and horse forms, and predictions that can help you decide who to place your bets on. Read on for more information:

Vauban

Vauban is one of the top contenders in this year's Melbourne Cup after some impressive runs in recent months. It's one of the horses with the most remarkable returns for punters, having a return of about 73% over the races with a total of about AUD $2852860.00 in career earnings.

While Vauban failed to win the 2023 and 2024 Melbourne Cup despite being the favourite, it's expected to bounce back this year. Betting sites have placed AUD$13 on Vauban to win, making it one of the clear favourites.

Via Sistina

Via Sistina is currently considered Australia's best horse, having recorded eight Group 1 wins from 11 starts. This impressive stat places it as one of the clear favourites for the  Melbourne Cup 2025 with the least odds of AUD$11. In 2024, it broke the Cox Plate race record by an eight-length romp, with the only big upset in Australia coming from the testing grounds.

In 2025, Via Sistina also showed impressive returns, making it a clear favourite for the Melbourne Cup. After a third-place finish in the Sydney Autumn Carnival, it went on to win a hat-trick.

Sir Delius

Sir Delius is a four-year stallion who's already won four races. It has won several races in Europe running as Delius, such as the Group 3  Prix du Lys. With about a 27% return on investment over the years, training under Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott is expected to prepare Sir Delius for the Melbourne Cup. It has a 50% win rate and 88% place finishes, making it one of the most in-form horses.

However, most of its wins have come in distances of 2,000-2,400m, which could prove a disadvantage in the Melbourne Cup as the course is 3,200m long.

Scandinavia

Scandinavia is a three-year-old horse with an impressive 48% win and 71% place finishes. While it has only a 13% ROI in horse race betting, it's had an impressive recent form, winning  AUD $822,124 on 29 July 2025. It's also the first three-year-old to win the Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup since Stradivarius last won it in 2017.

With three wins and two places from seven starts, it's no surprise that punters have AUD$12 odds on it to win the Melbourne Cup 2025. However, the race course distance could again prove challenging, considering its win range is between 2240m and 2860m.

Deakin

Deakin is another Melbourne Cup favourite thanks to its recent memories, with bookmakers placing odds of AUD$15 on it. In fact, trainer Phillip Stokes believes that Deakin is a much better racehorse than the retired Daqiansweet Junior. Stokes plans to field Deakin in the traditional Melbourne Cup path, starting with the Group 1 Memsie Stakes, followed by the Makybe Diva Stakes, Turnbull Stakes, and Caulfield Cup.

Deakins has had an impressive run, with five wins and three placings in 15 starts. However, its best performance was in the course range of 2600m, and Stokes admits to having some doubt about Deakin's ability to stay the 3200m distance of the Melbourne Cup. Deakins has had an impressive run of 33% wins and 53% places, making it a formidable choice in the Melbourne Cup.

Poniros

Poniros is a Golden Horn gelding and one of the top contenders for the Melbourne Cup with bookmakers giving it a AUD $15 odds in this year's edition. It established itself as a top contender with a successful hurdling debut, winning the Grade One JCB Triumph Hurdle in 2025 at 100-1 odds. This made him the longest-priced winner of the race and the joint-longest priced winner ever at The Festival in the modern era.

In the same race, East India Dock, the favourite, finished third. Its immense race experience on the Flat can be an added advantage in the Melbourne Cup horse race. Its best win range is between 1835m and 3699m; hence, the 3200m Melbourne course is a favourable course.

Aeliana

Aeliana is a 3-year-old bay filly with career earnings of AUD $976,775 from 10 starts. She has a record of four wins, two seconds, and one third, giving her a 40% win and 70% place percentage. In the Australian Derby, she won with a commanding lead of about a 5.16-length margin over the runner-up, Firm Agreement.

While Aeliana hasn't been nominated for any upcoming races and has cast doubt over her form, she still is among the Melbourne Cup Day contenders. Bookmakers have AUD $15 on her to win the race, promising bettors a good return. It's also important to note that Aeliana has one of the most impressive returns on investment, with a 107%.

Al Riffa

Al Riffa is a proven Group 1 performer from Joseph O'Brien's yard and has previously won the Curragh Cup with a dominant five-length margin over 2800m. This win was enough for bookmakers to place him as one of the favourites in the Melbourne Cup with odds of AUD$17. This victory answered any questions about his stamina for longer distances and is believed to handle the 3200m Flemington Racecourse effectively.

Al RIffa has had impressive returns over the years, with an ROI of about 44%. It's also important to note that when it was only two years old, it won in Group 1 in Ireland. While placed behind other horses in this list, it can pull a surprise and make a good return for gamblers.

Final Thoughts

As we approach the Melbourne Cup 2025, the excitement around the race that stops the nation is slowly building up. But it's not just about horse racing or carnivals; it's about the betting opportunities for enthusiasts around the globe. This guide about the favourites and their forms can help you decide which horse will likely win the race.