Macau casino stocks surge 59% since April as GGR momentum accelerates

Macau casino operators are enjoying their strongest rally in more than a year, with shares up 59% since April, according to Bloomberg. The increase takes place as gross gaming revenue continues to exceed forecasts, driven by rising tourist numbers, a rebound in high-end play, and an expanded slate of entertainment events.

Figures released by the city’s regulator show that May gross gaming revenue reached MOP21.19 billion, a 5% increase from the same period last year and 12.4% higher than April. June recorded MOP21.06 billion in revenue, up 19% year-on-year, while the first half of July brought in MOP18.6 billion, 11.6% above the same period in 2024.

Year-to-date, casinos have generated MOP132.35 billion, a 36.7% rise over last year. The improved results have prompted Seaport Research Partners to revise its full-year forecast upward by 7%, with expectations of 9% growth during the second half of 2025.

Analysts credit the growth to multiple factors, including stronger visitor arrivals and a surge in spending. Macau welcomed 19.22 million tourists through June, a 14.9% year-on-year increase, largely supported by travelers from mainland China but with international arrivals also on the rise.

Enhanced transport links and a broader range of attractions, from cultural events to major concerts, have further boosted foot traffic. High-profile entertainment has been particularly influential, with concerts by Jacky Cheung at the Galaxy Arena cited by JP Morgan, Citi, and Seaport Research as a significant contributor to June’s revenue spike. Performances by Korean rapper G-Dragon and other artists are expected to sustain that momentum.

A Bloomberg Intelligence index tracking Macau’s gaming sector has climbed 59% from April lows, outperforming the Hang Seng Composite Index’s 31% gain over the same period. Melco Resorts & Entertainment has led the rebound, its U.S.-listed shares rising 95% since spring, while MGM China Holdings has advanced 72%.

Despite this rally, valuations in the sector remain below historical averages. Bloomberg Intelligence notes that casino stocks are currently trading at 8.8 times estimated forward EBITDA, well under the five-year average of about 14 times.

“We expect the supportive visa regime, enhanced travel infrastructure and the expansion of nongaming offerings to drive robust gaming revenue growth in 2025,” Morningstar analyst Jennifer Song said last month. “Shares are appealing now given the sector’s favorable long-term outlook.”

Analysts at Jefferies echoed that view, stating earlier this month that July “is expected to be another above-trend month,” with recent checks confirming strong momentum. Upcoming quarterly results and monthly GGR updates will be closely watched for signs of whether the recovery will hold through the rest of the year.