Flutter misses revenue forecasts as prediction markets weigh on outlook

Flutter, the parent of FanDuel, reported fourth-quarter earnings that fell short of expectations, as investors worry that the rise of prediction markets is eating into the $14 billion U.S. sports gambling sector.

The New York-listed group posted full-year 2025 revenue of $16.4 billion, up 17% year-on-year but below its latest forecast of $16.7 billion and earlier guidance of $17.3 billion in November.

Flutter said it expects revenue of $18.4 billion in 2026, also below analysts’ consensus forecast of $19.3 billion, according to Bloomberg data.

Concerns have grown that prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket are drawing activity away from traditional sportsbooks in the roughly $14 billion U.S. sports betting market.

Rival DraftKings earlier forecast 2026 revenue of between $6.5 billion and $6.9 billion, below analysts’ expectations of $7.2 billion. Shares of both Flutter and DraftKings have lost more than half their market value over the past year.

Chief Executive Peter Jackson sought to play down the threat, saying the company was “never complacent” and outlining plans to introduce a new FanDuel sportsbook loyalty programme to retain customers.

More targeted and personalised offers would “distinguish our product from prediction markets, where it’s very difficult to offer [promotions]”, Jackson said.

In a letter to shareholders, Flutter said the impact of prediction markets on its sportsbook growth would only be “in the low single-digit percentage points”.
The company attributed a slowdown in betting revenue in the three months to December to an unusual run of sports results that prompted users to scale back wagering after short-term losses.

Prediction markets, which allow customers to trade on binary outcomes of future events, gained prominence after correctly favouring Donald Trump in the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

These platforms argue that regulation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission pre-empts state-level gambling bans, a position being challenged by several states and Native American tribal groups in cases that could ultimately reach the Supreme Court.

Flutter launched its own standalone predictions product in December. Jackson said it offered an “incremental opportunity” to serve customers in states where sports betting is prohibited and described prediction markets overall as “a win-win” for the company.