Macau Golden Week casino revenues fall 5% Y-o-Y, JP Morgan trims October forecast

Macau’s casino sector is facing fresh headwinds after October’s Golden Week revenues came in weaker than expected, prompting JPMorgan analysts to cut their monthly and quarterly gaming forecasts.

Golden Week gross gaming revenue (GGR) fell 5% year-on-year, a performance the analysts described as “not so golden.”

The fourth quarter did not begin “with a bang,” they said, adding that the forthcoming earnings season “looks to be uninspiring.”

JPMorgan now expects October GGR to grow between 3% and 6% year-on-year, down sharply from a previous projection of 11% to 13%. Its fourth-quarter growth estimate was also lowered to 9% from 13%.

The brokerage cited a combination of temporary setbacks, including typhoon-related travel disruption, weaker mass-market demand due to the timing of Mid-Autumn Festival gatherings, and a possible diversion of high-end VIP players to Singapore, where the Formula 1 Grand Prix was held from Oct. 3 to 5 instead of its usual September slot.

Despite the soft start to the quarter, the analysts said they remained constructive on the sector. “We’re not throwing in the towel, however: we see these as speed bumps, not roadblocks, and still see significant value even as we trim estimates,” they wrote.

They forecast “choppy” share price performance in the near term until gaming demand returns to double-digit growth, which they expect between December and the first quarter of 2026, helped by easier year-on-year comparisons.

Macau casinos delivered a 13% rise in GGR in the third quarter, reaching a post-pandemic high, although momentum faded towards the end of the period. Sequential growth was 2%, in line with historical seasonality of 1% to 2%, while industry margins held “largely steady” despite 33-hour casino shutdowns during Super Typhoon Ragasa.

“We don’t view the Golden Week data as a conclusive red flag for fundamentals,” the analysts said. “The sector warrants further monitoring in the coming weeks before calling a trend.”