Polymarket confident about competing with sportsbooks, Kalshi as it prepares US return

Polymarket is preparing to reenter the US through the acquisition of CFTC-registered exchange QCEX, though no specific launch timeline has been announced. The company's CEO confirmed the move in a recent interview, while expressing confidence in competing with sportsbooks and apps like Kalshi.

According to the blockchain-based prediction market, the move positions it for regulatory compliance after a 2022 settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) prohibited it from operating in the US.

Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan confirmed the planned reentry in a CNBC interview, stating that the company aims to differentiate itself from traditional sportsbooks and other prediction markets. "You look at sportsbooks, for example, or you look at these like consumer-trading apps, they're not exchanges, they're not marketplaces, they're front-ends for existing infrastructure," Coplan said.

He described Polymarket’s platform as offering an alternative to high-margin models used by conventional sportsbooks, referencing what he sees as a shift driven by product evolution. “For sportsbooks, it's sort of this commodity business, and you have the odds, and you take the other side, and it's basically subject to the innovator's dilemma right now, where they take these huge margins, and now there's a better way to do it with things like Polymarket,” he added.

Competitive outlook

Coplan addressed competitive platforms, notably Kalshi, which operates legally in the US under CFTC regulation. "Polymarket is Polymarket and they’re a Polymarket copycat," Coplan said, referring to Kalshi’s model.

Kalshi, along with PredictIt, currently provides users with the ability to choose "yes" or "no" on events tied to topics such as politics, economics, and sports. These platforms have maintained a presence in the US during Polymarket’s regulatory absence.

Online sportsbook operators, including DraftKings and  FanDuel, have also expressed interest in the prediction market space, which could expand their offerings beyond states where sports betting is legal. A fully regulated exchange could open access to event-based wagering across all 50 states.

Challenges and future plans

Coplan acknowledged the legal difficulties Polymarket previously encountered, including an FBI raid. Despite those setbacks, Coplan said Polymarket has grown significantly without relying heavily on marketing.

He described the company’s trajectory as “guerrilla,” pointing to user-driven growth over time. “Pretty damn big,” he told CNBC, referring to Polymarket’s current scale.

User behavior and product focus

Coplan said the product appeals to a segment of users who are motivated by the desire to test personal opinions, rather than engage in financialized apps. “You have an opinion on things and you're curious about what's going to happen in the future, and you think, ‘I think you're wrong and I'm right’,” he said. “So, I want to put up or shut up, right?”

He noted that while competition could increase as revenues grow, Polymarket is focused on product delivery rather than direct rivalry. “There’s probably going to be more competition as the revenues heat up and the market’s larger, but we're really just focused on delivering on product,” Coplan said.