Jesse Lonis named favourite to win 2025 WSOP main event by supercomputer simulation

Jesse Lonis has emerged as the leading contender to win the 2025 World Series of Poker (WSOP) Main Event, according to 10,000 simulations run by OLBG Casino's World Series of Poker Supercomputer. The tournament, which is underway in Las Vegas, will crown its champion on July 16.

The data model, based on market odds and prize structure, estimates Lonis will earn average winnings of over $3 million and gives him a 10.86% chance of winning the $10 million first-place prize - the highest probability among all players analyzed.

Phil Ivey, a poker legend with 10 WSOP bracelets, ranks second in the forecast with a 9.02% chance of finishing first and projected average earnings of approximately $2.72 million. Artur Martirosyan is tipped to follow closely behind with an 8.66% chance to win, while Tony Lin and William Alex Foxen round out the top five.

The OLBG supercomputer used a dataset of inverted market odds and the official payout structure to simulate tournament outcomes, calculating expected earnings for each player across 10,000 possible tournament finishes. The model considered only top-10 placements, with the minimum payout set at $800,000.

Top 5 Players – Expected Performance:

 Player                      Expected Earnings             Win Probability  
 
 Jesse Lonis                   $3,021,870                          10.86%  
 Phil Ivey                        $2,722,065                           9.02%  
 Artur Martirosyan       $2,538,695                           8.66%  
 Tony Lin                        $2,518,940                           8.55%  
 William Alex Foxen      $2,467,110                           8.06%  

Kristen Foxen, the highest-ranking woman in the simulation, is projected to earn an average of $1.57 million with a 4.72% chance of winning. Other notable names in the top 10 include Phil Hellmuth, Mikita Bodyakovsky, and Nick Schulman.

The prize structure awards the top finishers as follows:
1st: $10M, 2nd: $6M, 3rd: $4M, 4th: $3M, 5th: $2.5M, 6th: $2M, 7th: $1.5M, 8th: $1.25M, 9th: $1M, 10th: $800K.

The 2025 WSOP has drawn global attention, with over 10,000 participants vying for the coveted Main Event title and life-changing payouts. The final table will be played July 15–16.