Strip casinos bracing for soft summer ahead of 2026 growth, says analyst

Las Vegas Strip resorts are bracing for a softer summer season but remain optimistic about a rebound in the fall and continued growth into 2026, according to a new report from gaming industry analyst Barry Jonas of Truist Securities.

The report follows meetings between Jonas and executives from major casino operators in Las Vegas, the Las Vegas Review-Journal reported. While visitation is expected to slow during the summer months, Jonas attributed the dip more to seasonal trends than economic concerns.

“Operators see a softer summer driven by weak convention business and summer seasonality with no real callouts around consumer weakness,” Jonas said in the report. “Commentary suggested rate trends were in line with our most recent room survey, noting a soft Q2 followed by a relatively better but still soft year-over-year July/Q3.”

One factor affecting third-quarter performance is a shift in the Jewish holiday calendar, which moved travel that typically boosts Q4 numbers into Q3 this year. Despite the near-term slowdown, Jonas emphasized that key indicators point to long-term strength.

Gaming revenues also remain solid, hotel bookings and rates are showing improvement in Q3, and momentum is building for Q4, the report said. A strong events and convention calendar is expected to bolster performance into early 2026.

The completion of renovations at the Las Vegas Convention Center by year-end is also expected to reduce disruptions. The project wraps just in time for the massive ConExpo-Con/Agg construction trade show in March 2026, which is expected to draw over 100,000 attendees. The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) has reported record bookings for 2026 events.

Local casino operators, including Boyd Gaming Corp., Red Rock Resorts, and Golden Entertainment, are showing steady performance, buoyed by strong local employment, rising wages, high home values, and limited exposure to financial market volatility.

Jonas also noted that public operators remain financially disciplined and are not aggressively pursuing lower-end promotional business.