Flutter evaluates U.S. prediction market launch as Q1 U.S. revenue surges

Flutter Entertainment, the parent company of FanDuel, is weighing a move into the U.S. prediction market space, eyeing untapped opportunities in states without legal mobile sports betting, even as regulatory uncertainty clouds the sector’s future.

CEO Peter Jackson said on a first-quarter earnings call that the company is “closely monitoring” developments around U.S. prediction markets and has reassigned staff from Betfair, its European betting exchange, to evaluate the opportunity.

“We already operate the world's largest sports betting exchange … and we have vast experience in this space,” Jackson said. “We’re interested in the potential opportunity, we have brought some of our team who have experience in building these products and services from the Betfair exchange business and put them into FanDuel to help us evaluate the opportunities.”

While no formal plans have been announced, Flutter’s exploration of the space signals growing interest among major bookmakers in the U.S. prediction market model, particularly as platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket expand despite ongoing legal challenges.

Prediction markets, which allow users to wager on outcomes of real-world events, are viewed by some critics as de facto sportsbooks. Kalshi, a federally regulated platform under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), has recently prevailed in court cases in states such as Nevada and New Jersey.

Jackson acknowledged the legal landscape remains in flux but said that favorable rulings could accelerate sportsbook interest. “If there is any benefit that we get from prediction markets encouraging faster [sports betting] roll-out, we’ll take it,” he said.

However, he cautioned that prediction markets face structural limitations. “Don’t forget, the vast, vast majority of people are betting on parlays and it’s just not something you can get close to experiencing, if you look at the way prediction markets are set up,” Jackson said. Flutter is unlikely to pursue such a product in states where FanDuel already offers mobile wagering.

Flutter reported first-quarter group revenue of $3.66 billion, an 8% increase from a year earlier. Net income soared 289% to $335 million, while adjusted EBITDA rose 20% to $616 million.

In the U.S., FanDuel led the charge with $1.66 billion in revenue, up 18% year-on-year. Adjusted EBITDA in the U.S. grew fivefold to $161 million. FanDuel retained its market-leading positions in online sports betting and iGaming with 43% and 23% market share, respectively, the company said.

“I am pleased with the performance of the business during the first quarter, with the scaling of our US business driving a step change in the earnings profile of the group,” Jackson said. “FanDuel continues to win in the US.”

Sports betting and iGaming revenues rose 15% and 32% respectively, while average monthly players increased 11% year-over-year.

Despite strong U.S. results, Flutter revised its full-year U.S. revenue guidance downward to $7.15 billion–$7.65 billion from a prior range of $7.43 billion–$7.93 billion. CFO Rob Coldrake said the company is focused more on profitability than handle. “Net revenue is the thing we really focus on,” he said.

International revenue grew by a modest 1% to just under $2 billion, with adjusted EBITDA slipping 1% to $518 million. Growth in markets such as the UK, Ireland, and Eastern Europe was offset by declines in Asia and Brazil.

Flutter is also targeting growth in Italy, having submitted a bid for the country’s national lottery in partnership with Scientific Games. The bid, which pits Flutter against incumbent operator IGT, represents what Coldrake described as a “sizeable opportunity” in a “low risk but highly profitable” market.

Jackson emphasized the Italian bid is a “unique” opportunity and said Flutter is not necessarily planning further expansion into lottery operations elsewhere.