Experts urge caution on expanding casinos to North Jersey

With a shrinking customer base and a "saturated market," these experts say, it's uncertain that casinos in Jersey City and East Rutherford — two of the proposed locations — would attract many gamblers who would otherwise head to casinos in New York, Connecticut and Pennsylvania.

"If you build it, it doesn't mean the customers will come," said Deb Figart, a distinguished professor of economics at Stockton University.

Voters will ultimately decide in November. A measure expected to be approved by the state Legislature would place a question on the ballot asking voters whether the New Jersey constitution should be amended to allow casinos outside of Atlantic City.

Democratic lawmakers are largely in favor of the ballot initiative, and it became a top priority in the waning days of the last state Assembly session. Sheila Reynertson, a senior policy analyst for left-leaning think tank New Jersey Policy Perspective, said that's because state legislators "without a doubt" spoke only to pro-casino voices, not dissenting opinions, as they rushed to get the initiative on November's ballot.

"The big winners are not going to be your everyday people who need work," Reynertson said. "It's going to be the developers, gaming manufacturers, casino owners ... and that's it. Long-term, I think it's irresponsible for the legislators to push this as an economic driver for everyday New Jerseyans."

Figart, along with Ellen Mutari, an economics professor at Stockton, literally wrote the book on casino gaming in New Jersey.

Their "Just One More Hand: Life in the Casino Economy," published in February 2015, explores the lives of Atlantic City casino workers.

In a joint interview with The Jersey Journal, Figart and Mutari were hesitant to say they oppose expanding casino gambling outside of Atlantic City, but they said they are "not terribly hopeful" about the idea and don't believe it is the greatest use of the state's resources.

The two economists are also casting doubt on lawmakers' claims about the jobs that two new casinos would produce. Democrats have cited anywhere from 12,000 to 20,000 jobs, which Assemblyman Raj Mukherji, D-Jersey City, said would be "good-paying, permanent" positions.

Figart and Mutari said there would indeed be a boost in construction jobs that could have a multiplier effect on the local economies. They added that once the casinos are built, the remaining jobs will be low-wage positons that don't offer enough to sustain a family.

"We interviewed tons of casino workers, many of whom ... did love their jobs for many, many years," Mutari said.

"But pretty much everyone agreed that they would not recommend casino jobs for the children, their nieces and nephews these days, particularly because they are no longer full-time jobs. They no longer have regular hours."

Spectrum Gaming Group has done work for Paul Fireman, who wants to build a casino just outside of Liberty State Park as part of a 95-story tower that would include a hotel, apartments, shops and an entertainment complex (plans remain preliminary).

A request for comment from Fireman was not returned.

It's not clear that voters will OK the plan, but support is gradually rising. The most recent Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll on the issue found opposition at 50 percent and support at 42 percent. In June, opposition was at 56 percent and support at 37 percent.

Fulop said Fireman's plan wouldn't be solely a casino. Non-gaming revenue would be equal to gaming revenue, he said.

"There is a big revenue opportunity," he said.

Still, Fulop added, his administration wouldn't push for zoning approvals necessary to build the casino if a majority of Jersey City voters vote against the referendum, even if the initiative passes statewide.

"If the residents of Jersey City don't want it, I'm not going with it," he said. "It'll be dead on arrival and Newark or Bergen County can have it."

Sweeney dismissed the Stockton economists' comments with a slam at the Atlantic County university, saying "they're going to say everything negative they possibly can about casinos."