Forecasts gaming analyst Andrew Zarnett

Vegas may follow suit in smoking ban

2014-07-22
Reading time 2 min
(US).- Deutsche Bank gaming analyst Andrew Zarnett, warned investors that a Strip smoking ban could become reality in the next 24 months, or sooner. He said the idea is likelier to happen now that Macau plans to ban smoking on gaming floors in October. Of the 23 states with commercial casinos, 18 outlaw smoking in casinos.

In Nevada, a voter referendum in 2006 banned smoking in all public places — excluding casino floors.

Zarnett also cited continued study of second hand smoke’s dangers. “It clearly adds incremental pressure for the introduction of similar legislation in Las Vegas,” Zarnett said. A smoking ban in Nevada might mean a 7.5 percent decline in gaming during its first full year. In his report,

Zarnett included evidence that smoking bans have historically led to “steep declines” in gaming revenue.

Gaming regulators, lawmakers and lobbyists said they haven’t heard any groundswell of support to change the state’s smoking laws.

Macau produced USD 45.2 billion in gaming revenue in 2013, and the market is up 12.6 percent through June. If the smoking ban doesn’t hurt gaming revenue, the Strip could be next.

Delaware’s gaming market fell 11.3 percent following a smoking ban in 2002. Illinois casinos
experienced a 20.9 percent revenue decline after the Smoke-Free Illinois Act was passed in 2007.

Zarnett said the 2006 Nevada law, which eliminated smoking in bars, restaurants and taverns, was partially responsible for the 2010 bankruptcy of Herbst Gaming, which then was the state’s largest slot machine route operator. The smoking ban was blamed for the company’s 20 percent decline in slot route operation revenue.

Zarnett said a smoking ban would initially disrupt customer wagering patterns, with many gamblers taking a break from the table to step away for a smoke. “A break in play often means a player has time to reconsider their play situation,” Zarnett said. “If lady luck has been kind to them, they may decide to call it a day. Meanwhile, if their efforts to beat the house are unsuccessful, they may decide that they have lost enough.”

Still, Zarnett said Macau’s ban might be enough to bring the idea back to the Strip. The Strip has adopted some nonsmoking ideas. Several casinos have banned smoking in race and sports books. Most poker rooms are smoke-free. During the recently concluded World Series of Poker, the Rio’s 60,000-square-foot convention center, was smoke-free.

Most casinos offer nonsmoking gaming areas, while companies tout modern technology that cleans and filters indoor air at increased rates. Some table game pits and slot machine areas have special ventilation units.

The smoking ban is one of two issues the resort industry faces that could cool the Strip’s recovery.

Zarnett said a move to further enhance anti-money laundering laws by the U.S. Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network could target high-end foreign baccarat customers, keeping their gambling dollars in Asia.  “All in all, things are pretty good on the Las Vegas Strip,” Zarnett said.

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