Brazil moves to ban prediction markets as authorities begin platform blocks

Brazilian authorities have formally classified prediction markets as illegal, with enforcement measures already underway to restrict operators across the country.

At a press conference on Friday, Finance Minister Dario Durigan and presidential chief of staff Miriam Belchior confirmed that such platforms would not be permitted to operate.

The announcement followed a new resolution by the National Monetary Council, which defined the scope of permissible derivatives and excluded contracts linked to events such as sports outcomes, political developments, or entertainment activities.

During the conference, Belchior said: “We are announcing that prediction markets will not be allowed in Brazil. We do not want to expose Brazilians to risks and financial losses.”

Enforcement has already begun. Brazil’s telecommunications regulator Anatel has blocked 28 platforms offering event-based contracts, with authorities indicating that further platforms will be restricted as they emerge.

Durigan said the government had reviewed how these platforms operate and concluded that betting on uncertain outcomes, including weather conditions, does not align with existing laws governing sports betting and online gaming. 

He warned that action is being taken to limit expansion and reduce risks to the public. “Platforms are already being blocked to prevent uncontrolled growth and risks to the population,” he said. “Currently, 28 have already been blocked, and others that emerge will suffer the same fate.”

The move builds on ongoing enforcement within Brazil’s regulated online gambling market, launched in January 2025. Authorities have already blocked 39,000 unlicensed betting sites and intend to apply a similar approach to prediction market operators, according to Durigan, who said the government’s objective is to eliminate illegal betting activity.

Officials also stated that prediction markets fall outside the country’s gambling legislation. Durigan said these products are not eligible for regulation under the existing legal framework and are being blocked for failing to comply with the law. 

“The product offered by these platforms is not eligible for regulation. The blocking action is due to non-compliance with the legislation. This market is not provided for in the legislation, and it will not be permitted for anyone to bet on whether it will rain tomorrow or not," he confirmed.

Regis Dudena, Secretary of Economic Reforms, said the regulatory framework is designed to organize and control specific types of betting, particularly those tied to sports and online gaming, while excluding other forms. 

He noted that prediction markets had begun expanding in a way that resembled betting products but did not fit within legal definitions. In response, he said, the monetary authority moved to explicitly exclude such offerings from the derivatives market.

Daniele Correa Cardoso, Secretary of Prizes and Betting, said fixed-odds betting remains legal when conducted by authorized operators and in line with established rules.

She added that some prediction market platforms had attempted to enter Brazil by presenting their products as financial instruments, despite functioning in practice like betting products not covered under Law 14.790. “This is illegal and has not been recognised by the Brazilian government,” she said.

Consumer protection concerns were also highlighted during the briefing. Ricardo Morishita, national consumer secretary, said prediction markets are fully prohibited under both gambling legislation and the monetary council’s resolution, warning that such activities pose risks to users and urging consumers to engage only with licensed platforms identified by the bet.br domain.

When asked about specific operators, including Polymarket, Dudena said any platform offering services outside the regulatory framework will be blocked. This position indicates that other firms planning entry into Brazil, including Kalshi, may also face restrictions if their products do not comply with the approved categories.