Kalshi says prediction markets to compete directly with U.S. equities within a few years

Prediction markets are accelerating faster than expected and may approach trading volumes seen in equities within a few years, according to Kalshi Chief Executive Officer Tarek Mansour.

Speaking at the Futures Industry Association’s Expo in Chicago, Mansour said the company’s current trajectory suggests significant growth ahead. Bloomberg reported the CEO describing the sector as “starting to look like a trillion-dollar market,” noting he had not anticipated the pace of development.

Kalshi’s expansion gained momentum after the company won a court case last year that allowed it to offer contracts tied to the outcome of the US presidential election. Since then, interest has expanded across politics, sports, culture and other events. The company has relied on its regulatory classification to introduce sports-related markets in states where traditional sports wagering has been restricted.

Mansour said additional sports agreements are expected, citing continuing demand across these markets. He also said Kalshi anticipates “very large news network partnerships coming out very soon,” adding that he expects prediction market data to integrate directly into media reporting.

He said Kalshi has already created “a whole class of active traders,” shortening what he initially believed would be a decade-long path before the sector could compete with traditional stock trading activity.

Regulatory tension and market positioning

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulates Kalshi and has permitted the exchange to continue offering event contracts. Mansour argued the firm’s model differs from gambling because users take positions against each other and not the platform. While the house always wins in gambling, prediction markets provide a more level playing field, he said.

State regulators in several jurisdictions have challenged Kalshi’s operations. Some states have issued directives ordering it to halt activity, and courts in certain jurisdictions have ruled against the company. Mansour acknowledged long-standing “weird tension with gambling” in financial innovation, particularly in derivatives, and said the issue continues to influence how prediction markets are viewed.

Industry analysts say competition from established gambling operators could pressure prediction exchanges, particularly as sports betting platforms expand into adjacent products.

Wall Street capital and competitive moves

Investment interest from major financial firms has accelerated. Intercontinental Exchange Inc., owner of the New York Stock Exchange, has agreed to invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket, one of Kalshi’s largest competitors. CME Group, which operates global derivatives markets, is collaborating with Flutter Entertainment to build a consumer-facing app that combines sports-related contracts with indicators tied to the economy.

Mansour said he supports competition and expects it to help the sector evolve. Kalshi’s contracts are available on its own platform and through Robinhood Markets Inc., where they have generated record activity. Both firms have reported increased volume tied in part to sports-related positions.

Kalshi plans to expand outside the US, with Mansour saying the company intends to enter multiple jurisdictions in the next 18 months. He projected rising activity from users and said the company is preparing for further deals across sports and media.