Most Americans see sports event contracts as gambling, AGA survey shows

A large majority of U.S. voters believe sports event contracts offered by prediction markets are a form of gambling and should be regulated under state gaming laws, according to a new survey commissioned by the American Gaming Association (AGA).

The poll, conducted by YouGov from August 1-8 among 2,025 registered voters, found that 85% of respondents said contracts such as wagers on whether the New York Yankees win a game more closely resemble gambling than financial instruments. Only 6% said they were akin to commodities or securities contracts.

Support for regulation was strong, with 80% saying sports event contracts should be treated like other forms of online sports betting. Two-thirds of respondents said oversight should fall to state and tribal gaming regulators rather than the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

“Americans know a sports bet when they see one — and they expect prediction markets offering sports event contracts to be held to the same rules and consumer safeguards as every other state-regulated sportsbook,” AGA President and CEO Bill Miller said in a statement. 

He added the findings “underscore the need for the CFTC to enforce and uphold its own regulations that prohibit gaming contracts, and for Congress to use its oversight power to ensure prediction markets are not used as a backdoor for gaming.”

The study showed skepticism toward prediction market operators such as Kalshi, with 70% of respondents saying the companies are “exploiting a loophole” to act as unlicensed sportsbooks. Only 16% supported allowing such platforms to offer contracts without being licensed as sportsbooks.

The issue has sparked debate around consumer protections. At a conference in July, Kalshi legal counsel Josh Sterling said: “People are adults, and they’re allowed to spend their money however they want it, and if they lose their shirt, that’s on them.” Nearly two-thirds of voters polled disagreed, favoring the view that companies offering gambling products have a responsibility to provide responsible gaming tools.

Legal challenges are also underway. Multiple tribes in California have sued Kalshi, accusing it of misleading consumers by advertising its product as sports betting “legal in all 50 states.”

The AGA said it has created a new landing page compiling its research and regulatory resources on sports event contracts. The latest survey follows a separate AGA study in July, which found that 90% of sweepstakes players considered sweepstakes gaming to be a form of gambling and 68% said they played primarily to win money.