Kalshi trading hits $441M in first NFL week but analysts flag pricing gap with sportsbooks

Prediction market operator Kalshi reported $441 million in trading volume during the opening week of the NFL season, underscoring rapid growth in its sports-focused contracts but also drawing scrutiny over pricing compared with traditional sportsbooks.

Kalshi Chief Executive Tarek Mansour said nearly $200 million of the total came on Sunday alone, with the “vast majority” in sports markets. “NFL week 1 is equal to a U.S. election. Probably nothing,” Mansour wrote on X.

Kalshi has done $441m of volume since NFL kickoff.

NFL week 1 is equal to a US election.

Probably nothing. pic.twitter.com/l08dshJ2eN

— Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) September 8, 2025

The platform, which has expanded beyond yes/no event contracts to list prop-style and parlay-style markets, said it is adding more products to meet what a spokesperson described as “surging demand for legal and regulated choices.”

Kalshi has leaned on NFL branding and imagery in recent marketing despite reportedly lacking formal consent from the league or its players’ union.

Analysts caution that trading volume figures are not equivalent to sportsbook handle, which measures actual amounts wagered, since every buy and sell counts toward Kalshi’s topline numbers.

DraftKings CEO Jason Robins said the advantage of prediction markets lies more in geography than in product depth, speaking at the Bank of America Gaming & Lodging Conference last week. “It’s clearly, in my mind, going to be challenging for that product to compete. But I think where you don’t have anything else, it’s pretty good," he stated.

Pricing comparisons in Week 1 suggested Kalshi’s contracts were less competitive than those at leading sportsbooks. Citizens Equity Research analyst Jordan Bender said money line and total wagers were 10% to 25% more expensive than DraftKings and 16% to 23% more expensive than FanDuel on Sept. 5. By kickoff on Sept. 7, pricing had tightened but remained about 7% worse on money lines and 10% worse on totals.

“We expect pricing to be even more inferior compared to DraftKings and FanDuel with the collateral needed by the market makers to trade the product,” Bender wrote, adding that Kalshi’s touted cash-out functionality is also overstated.

“Together with inferior pre-game pricing, UI/UX, and cashout, we do not view betting exchanges as a competitive threat to profitability for existing operators (DKNG, FLUT, MGM Resorts Caesars Entertainment, PENN Entertainment, Rush Street Interactive) in the legal sports betting states and should not expect to see reactionary promos/marketing as a result,” he said.