The World Cup kicks off today in Brazil

Odds-on the World Cup will deliver a bonanza final score for bookies

2014-06-12
Reading time 3:02 min
(UK / Brazil).- Companies such as William Hill are relying on complex mathematical models and algorithms to help them meet demand for "in play" betting during the World Cup. On an unremarkable corner of Merrion Street in the centre of Leeds, opposite a branch of Greggs is a spot which will be a pretty good contender for the busiest place in Britain during the World Cup.

From the outside, the dull brown brick building gives no hint of the frenzied activity that will take place inside its walls during the four and a half weeks of the tournament, which kicks off in Brazil this week. There’s no branding, either on the outside or in the lobby. Only a large black and white photo hung on a wall above the seating area for guests offers a clue as to the building’s purpose - and only those with sharp eyesight will be able to read the caption signifying that the picture is of William Hill, the late founder of Britain’s biggest bookmaker.

This inconspicuous building is home to William Hill’s UK nerve centre. During the World Cup it will be operating round the clock, with staff sometimes starting shifts at three or four o’clock in the morning.

Although the company’s “traders” - some of whom are also based in Gibraltar - are thousands of miles away from the action in Brazil, they will be ensuring punters in every single country where the bookmaker operates will be supplied with up-to-date odds. These odds will cover everything from which team will be the tournament’s eventual winner, to which goalkeeper will win the “Golden Glove” award.

Bookmakers are hopeful the World Cup will break all betting records with more than £1bn wagered across the industry over the course of the tournament - the equivalent of eight Grand Nationals or four Cheltenham Festivals combined.

William Hill, which lays claim to a fifth of the market, expects to attract almost double the amount of bets taken during the last World Cup, held in South Africa in 2010, when its customers wagered US$ 175.2 million.

Although England is entering this tournament with odds of just 25-1, lower than the 7-1 offered before the first whistle was blown in South Africa and a far cry from the 4-1 chance attributed to Bobby Moore’s 1966 winning team, betting activity is expected to double on the days when Roy Hodgson’s men play.

According to Terry Pattinson, William Hill's group trading director, this year’s World Cup will also be remarkable for several other reasons. Since 2010, UK bookmakers have been furiously expanding outside of Britain, while hundreds of millions have been ploughed into online and mobile betting - the fastest growing segment of the market.

Last year, William Hill closed a trio of deals to bolster its digital offering, including spending US$ 711 million on the 29% stake it didn't already own in its internet business, William Hill Online. It also bought the Australian division of online bookie Sportingbet in a US$ 770.4 million deal, followed shortly after by a US$ 32 millionagreement for Tom Waterhouse, another digital bookmaker based Down Under. “At the last World Cup, we were a 90% UK business, now we would say we are 70% reliant on the UK,” Pattinson says.

The trend hasn’t been restricted to William Hill alone. Ladbrokes also last year struck a five-year agreement with its rival’s former partner, Playtech, to improve its lacklustre digital business. Betfair, which is best known for its online betting exchange, has also been building up a traditional sportsbook to attract more mainstream customers who only have the occasional punt on occasions such as the World Cup and major horse racing festivals.

Bookies expect this year’s tournament to be the “digital World Cup”, as the late timing of many of the games, when betting shops will be closed, will encourage punters to bet online and through their smart phones in greater numbers than ever before.

“It’s going to be very mobile-driven,” said Ladbrokes’ corporate affairs director, Ciaran O’Brien. Ladbrokes estimates that some three quarters of turnover across the industry during the tournament will be from bets placed online or through mobile phone apps.

Back at William Hill’s nerve centre, a group of advanced mathematicians, often plucked from the best universities, have been working on algorithms and models drawing on reams of historical data to devise odds on a large number of events - or “markets” in bookmaker speak. Their models will be particularly important for punters who want to place “in play” bets - while games are ongoing - to ensure all odds are up to date and accurate.

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