Mexico's iGaming market breaks its four-year uptrend

Higher taxes on the gambling industry finally broke the four-year growth streak, Blask says in its latest market report.

Mexico's iGaming market has been growing consistently since the beginning of 2022. According to Blask's data, two short flat periods along the way did not reverse the multiyear uptrend. In early 2026, the trend changed, registering the sharpest drop on record, in reaction to a tax rate hike.

Four years of growth

Blask Index for Mexico rose 6x from January 2022 to December 2025. In 2023, year-over-year growth was +42.4%, in 2024 — +59%, in 2025 — +52.9%. Along this four-year run, iGaming demand showed only two short flat periods. Both times, the market resumed growth.

The competitive landscape changed over those four years, too. In January 2022, Caliente led with 31.7% share in the country's Blask Index, and Bet365 was close behind at 24.3%. By December 2025, Bet365’s share had dropped to 3.2%. Caliente’s share had risen to 40.2%.

The market ended 2025 at its highest point. And then, the uptrend broke.

The sharpest drop

In the first two months of 2026, Mexico’s Blask Index fell 35% from the December 2025 peak. The onshore segment absorbed most of the decline; local licensed brands lost 34% of their Blask Index, while international brands lost less than 7%. The drop was driven by the hike in tax rates. 

Mexico taxes the gambling industry through the IEPS (Impuesto Especial sobre Producción y Servicios), a federal excise tax. In autumn 2025, the rate was raised from 30% to 50%, effective from 1 January 2026.

The IEPS is applied to revenues. At 50%, operators are left with significantly less to spend on player acquisition, bonuses, and promotions.

Blask’s co-founder and managing partner Dmitriy Belianin notes that with 50% tax rate on turnover, “the reform is economically prohibitive for most verticals unless the base changes, the rate comes down, or operators can pass through significant cost”. Yet he thinks that it changes the structural picture only partially.

«The real structural risk isn't that Mexico stops growing, it's that growth increasingly happens in the grey market, which benefits no one with a licence. For operators with deep local roots and amortised infrastructure, Mexico is still viable. For anyone pricing a new entry at 2024 margins, the math broke».

Dmitriy Belianin, co-founder and managing partner of Blask

The market leader suffered the hardest blow. Caliente's share in the Blask Index dropped to 21.8% in March 2026, while most of the other top brands held their ground. 

According to Dmitriy Belianin, Caliente entered this period as the most overexposed brand in Mexico by design. “They were the most-visited gambling site in Mexico by a wide margin, which means when operators pull back acquisition spend under tax pressure, Caliente had the most to lose in absolute terms”, says Blask’s co-founder.

«That's the brand-specific element — either a specific campaign or product misstep, or simply that Caliente's audience is more acquisition-dependent and less loyal than a brand built on a narrower, stickier player base. In markets where one operator dominates through spend rather than product depth, this is always the risk. The IEPS created the conditions; Caliente's exposure profile determined the magnitude».

Dmitriy Belianin, co-founder and managing partner of Blask

Signs of stabilisation

March was a rebound month for iGaming demand in Mexico. Blask Index rose 4% compared to February. Dmitriy Belianin notes that a single positive month after two sharp declines is a pause, not a pivot, but adds that the conditions for stabilisation are visible.

“What Q2 needs to show for this to be read as real stabilisation is threefold”, says Blask’s co-founder. First, consistency across the top five operators, not just one brand recovering while others stay flat or continue declining. “In our data, when stabilisation is genuine, you see the floor hold across the competitive set, not just the leader bouncing”, notes Belianin.

Second, the Blask Index needs to stop compressing month-on-month. “We'd want to see at least two consecutive months where the gap between leaders and the mid-tier narrows, which is typically the sign that marketing spend is returning to the market”, says the expert. 

The third thing that Q2 needs to deliver is new entrant activity or brand reactivation signals. When operators cut performance budgets, branded search demand drops with a lag of four to six weeks. If the March recovery came from organic demand and not spending recovery, it's fragile.

«If Q2 delivers all three, it's the stabilisation. If only the top-tier recovers while mid-market stays compressed, it's a consolidation story which is still interesting, just a different thesis».

Dmitriy Belianin, co-founder and managing partner of Blask

Bottom line

Mexico's iGaming market grew 6x over four years without a single reversal. The IEPS hike from 30% to 50%, effective January 2026, changed, so that local licensed operators took most of the hit while international brands held ground. March showed the first signs of recovery, but whether it marks a floor or a pause depends on Q2.