ARK Invest collaborates with Kalshi to integrate prediction markets into institutional investing strategies

Investment adviser ARK Invest has partnered with Kalshi to bring prediction markets into institutional investing.

The agreement comes as prediction markets rapidly gain traction in financial research by aggregating diverse information into real-time probability signals about future outcomes, said ARK Invest.

By tracking markets tied to business metrics and industry developments, ARK Invest plans to explore how these forward-looking signals can inform its research and portfolio strategies.

Under the partnership, ARK Invest will focus on three primary applications of prediction markets in finance. First, it will use probability markets as a supplement to fundamental and quantitative analysis, providing continuously updated expectations derived from a wide range of participants.

Additionally, it will leverage markets tied to key performance indicators—such as production volumes, deliveries, regulatory approvals, and technological milestones—to gain forward-looking insights and anticipate future outcomes.

Moreover, ARK will employ these markets to hedge exposure to discrete events that impact portfolios, ranging from company-specific developments to broader macroeconomic and sector risks.

Some of these markets are already live on Kalshi, including those tracking nonfarm productivity and the U.S. deficit-to-GDP ratio, giving ARK early insight into how these signals can enhance its research processes.

“Bringing prediction markets into institutional workflows is a natural next step for innovation in financial research,” said Cathie Wood, Founder, CEO, and CIO of ARK Invest. “We believe these signals can enhance our research process and provide valuable context around key drivers across disruptive sectors, helping investors better quantify uncertainty and make more informed decisions.”

Nick Grous, Director of Research at ARK Invest, added, “We believe prediction markets offer some of the purest expressions of risk around key economic and company-specific outcomes. Through our partnership with Kalshi, we’re excited to help bring these forward-looking signals to a broader set of investors.”

The ARK Invest partnership is also significant for Kalshi as it shows the exchange is gaining traction in the financial services sector. Kalshi recently partnered with Tradeweb Markets (NASDAQ: TW) to broaden institutional access to its prediction markets, followed by a deal with DriveWealth to distribute event contracts through that brokerage.

These deals, along with the ARK agreement, highlight Kalshi’s push to expand prediction markets to institutional investors—an effort that’s especially important as yes/no exchanges face scrutiny for offering sports derivatives.

As Kalshi’s valuation rises and Polymarket shows similar growth, some investors fear that the broader potential of prediction markets could be overshadowed if the focus stays on high-profile sports contracts.

“As institutional adoption of prediction markets grows, Kalshi is seeing increased demand for a formal market request pipeline to help investors leverage the wisdom of the crowd,” said Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi. “This was a huge part of the original vision for Kalshi: pricing everything so that the world’s most important institutions could make better decisions.”