Gemini moves into prediction markets with new CFTC authorization

Gemini received approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to enter prediction markets, delivering a regulatory gain for the company at a time when its shares remain more than 50% below their IPO price.

The license grants Gemini Titan, the company’s derivatives arm, authority to operate as a Designated Contract Market and list event contracts in the US.

The approval ends a review that began with Gemini’s March 2020 application. “Today’s approval marks the culmination of a 5-year licensing process and the beginning of a new chapter for Gemini,” CEO Tyler Winklevoss said. He noted that the company first submitted its filing in March 2020.

During extended trading on Wednesday, Gemini’s stock rose 10.8%. The company has faced a difficult first year in public markets following its New York listing in September.

Event contracts and market entry plans

The license allows Gemini Titan to offer prediction markets built on yes-or-no questions involving future outcomes. Gemini said examples may include: “Will 1 bitcoin end this year higher than $200k?” or “Will Elon Musk’s X end up paying the full $140 million fine to the European Commission in 2026?”

These contract formats resemble those offered by Crypto.com, Kalshi and Polymarket. Gemini did not identify a launch date, stating only that access will begin “soon.” Customers in the US will be able to participate initially through the web platform, with mobile trading to follow.

Gemini President Cameron Winklevoss said, “Prediction markets have the potential to be as big or bigger than traditional capital markets.”

A federal court ruling last year that removed a CFTC prohibition on election contracts has drawn more companies into this segment. Fanatics recently announced a new prediction-market effort, and Robinhood joined Susquehanna in acquiring LedgerX in November.

Future derivatives development

Gemini also intends to assess additional derivatives for US customers. “In the future, Gemini Titan will explore expanding its derivatives offering for US customers to include crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts or perps,” the firm said. The company noted that perpetuals have “gained huge popularity and traction in Asia and other non-US jurisdictions over the last decade.”

Gemini did not reference sports markets in its plan. Several entrants, including Cboe, have similarly avoided that category following legal challenges directed at sports-related derivatives on various platforms.

The approval comes at a time when crypto-linked prediction markets are seeing increased participation from trading platforms. Crypto.com and Polymarket have already established themselves in the sector, and Polymarket is reported to be evaluating a digital currency offering.

The Winklevoss twins, known for holding 70,000 Bitcoin, tied the regulatory outcome to broader federal policy shifts. “We thank President Trump for ending the Biden Administration’s War on Crypto and Acting Chairman Pham for her hard work and dedication to help realize President Trump’s vision for making America the crypto capital of the world,” Tyler Winklevoss said. “It’s incredibly refreshing and invigorating to have a President and a financial regulator who are pro crypto, pro innovation, and pro America.”