eToro eyes prediction markets through discussions with Kalshi, Polymarket

eToro said on Monday it is in talks with prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket as the online brokerage evaluates expanding into event contracts. The remarks came as the company posted strong third-quarter earnings and announced a $150 million share buyback.

Chief Executive Jonathan Assia told analysts the company is exploring ways to allow users to trade on financial, geopolitical, and economic outcomes, noting that eToro’s recent expansion into futures trading has laid the groundwork to support prediction markets in the United States.

“We are talking to Kalshi and Polymarket, obviously, the market leaders in prediction markets,” Assia said. He added that the firm’s newly launched futures platform in Europe uses “the same rails that eventually enable basically to trade prediction markets in the US as well.”

Assia said eToro plans to prioritise financial event markets rather than sports-related contracts, an area drawing legal scrutiny for companies such as Kalshi. “Prediction markets on financial events, on geopolitics, on economic events have — do create significant value and people thinking about their trading strategies or hedging what they want to do,” he said. “That initially will be our focus.”

The CEO also pointed to synergies between crypto and prediction markets, noting that an upcoming eToro crypto wallet will enable customers to engage with "on-chain prediction markets such as poly-chain and others."

The company appears well-positioned to enter the space, ending the quarter with 3.73 million funded accounts, up 16% year-on-year, and $20.8 billion in assets under administration, up 76%. Cash and cash equivalents totalled $1.2 billion.

eToro reported a 28% rise in net contribution to $215 million for the third quarter, while net income climbed 48% to $57 million. Adjusted EBITDA increased 43% to $78 million, helped by stronger contribution margins and cost discipline. Adjusted diluted EPS was $0.60, up from $0.51 a year earlier.

The board authorised a $150 million share repurchase programme, including plans for a $50 million accelerated share repurchase. The company said the buyback reflects confidence in its long-term strategy and that its share price “does not fully reflect the company’s fundamental value.”

Operational metrics for October showed continued momentum, with assets under administration rising 73% year-over-year to $20.5 billion and funded accounts reaching 3.76 million.

eToro continued advancing its crypto strategy, expanding its U.S. digital asset lineup from 3 to 110 tokens and progressing toward the launch of a crypto wallet that will support on-chain prediction markets, lending, and tokenization. Global expansion remained strong, with activity spanning 75 countries and U.S.-funded account growth already surpassing full-year 2024 levels.