Robinhood price target raised to $161 as Compass Point highlights growth in prediction market revenue

Robinhood is likely to have posted $20 million in third-quarter prediction market revenue, according to an update from an analyst, more than double the prior quarter’s tally. The figure is now expected to further surge to $50 million in Q4.

The company is seeing growth across multiple business lines — from equity and options trading to prediction markets and crypto fees — prompting Compass Point to raise its price target from $105 to $161 and keep a Buy recommendation on the stock.

Compass Point Research & Trading analyst Ed Engel and his team said in a client note that they expect Robinhood “to disclose October trends pacing well above 4Q expectations.” The firm maintained its Buy rating, citing higher revenue contributions from several divisions, including equities, prediction markets, and cryptocurrency services.

Engel said the company’s earnings outlook reflects momentum from increased trading activity. The analysts also expect continued revenue growth from new product lines, particularly Robinhood’s prediction markets and staking services.

The trading platform’s prediction markets, introduced earlier this year, have gained traction among users. The service allows traders to place contracts on real-world outcomes, such as sports results, government policy developments, or digital asset prices.

“We forecast HOOD generating ~$20m in revenue from prediction markets in 3Q, which is up over 100% QoQ,” Engel wrote. Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev said on X last month that the platform recorded more than 4 billion event contracts since launch, with over 2 billion placed in the third quarter.

Analysts estimate the company earns about $0.01 per contract, translating to roughly $40 million in revenue. Engel projected further growth for the fourth quarter, saying, “We model HOOD's 4Q prediction reaching ~$50m alongside a full quarter of NFL season.”

Engel also pointed to cryptocurrency activity as another contributor to Robinhood’s revenue. The firm expects higher income from transaction fees and staking services, which allow users to lock up digital tokens and receive periodic rewards.

“We don't believe the Street is accurately forecasting HOOD's 2H25 or 2026 crypto revenue, which includes higher fee rates and staking revenue,” Engel wrote.

Robinhood shares rose as much as 5% on Monday following the Compass Point update. The stock has increased more than 250% year to date and entered the S&P 500 Index (^GSPC) last month. Robinhood currently has 20 Buy ratings, eight Hold, and one Sell among analysts.