Weak outlook for MGM

Goldman Sachs names Caesars and Wynn top casino stock picks

2025-07-08
Reading time 1:21 min

Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on several gaming stocks Monday, highlighting Caesars Entertainment and Wynn Resorts as standout performers in a challenging environment for the casino industry.

In a note led by analyst Lizzy Dove, the investment bank noted that the 2025 outlook for the gaming sector remains mixed, citing varied performance across Las Vegas, regional casinos, and Macau, Seeking Alpha reported. Despite these headwinds, Goldman remains selectively optimistic, favoring companies with clear, medium-term earnings visibility driven by ongoing growth projects.

“While we proceed with caution, we believe investors will be rewarded for a nuanced (and patient) approach, with the sector ripe for stock picking,” said Dove.

Caesars and Wynn were both initiated with Buy ratings. For Caesars, Goldman cited a strong setup heading into 2026, easing competitive pressure in regional markets, and robust free cash flow (FCF) generation over the next three years.

We see an attractive risk-reward with highly visible and modelable debt-to-equity value transfer over time, following the completion of the multi-year capex cycle,” Dove said.

Wynn Resorts was also highlighted for its premium portfolio and long-term upside potential. "WYNN offers best-in-class assets, with favorable demographic exposure and solid 2027 tailwinds,” Dove said. “With the upcoming 1Q27 launch of Wynn Al Marjan, we believe patient investors will be rewarded and view WYNN as the most catalyst-driven stock amongst our coverage, with meaningful upside from here."

Meanwhile, Las Vegas Sands received a Neutral rating, while MGM Resorts International was downgraded to Sell. Goldman flagged concerns around MGM’s heavy lease obligations and long-dated capital expenditures, particularly the Japan project, which is not expected to open until after 2030.

We see unfavorable risk/reward against this macro, given the pressure on FCF generation, which we expect to weigh on capital returns and valuation,” Dove said.

Wall Street and Seeking Alpha analysts appear to align with Goldman’s views. On a quantitative basis, Wynn Resorts currently holds a slight edge over its peers, reflecting investor confidence in its growth trajectory and upcoming catalysts.

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