Over $40 million wagered as bettors tried to predict next pope 

Over $40 million was wagered across two major prediction platforms as users tried to forecast the next leader of the Catholic Church—yet few anticipated the outcome: the election of an American, Cardinal Robert Prevost of Chicago, now Pope Leo XIV.

According to Polymarket and Kalshi, the two platforms that drew the bulk of the betting activity, over $30 million was placed on Polymarket and another $10.6 million on Kalshi, CNBC reported. Despite the frenzy, Prevost entered the conclave with odds of less than 1% on Kalshi. Out of more than 33,000 trades on the platform, only 416 bets—totaling just under $450,000—were placed on his candidacy.

The surprise result yielded a massive payday for a few lucky bettors. One Kalshi user walked away with $52,641 from a $526 wager, the platform confirmed. The individual’s identity was not disclosed.

Kalshi described the conclave as generating engagement comparable to a major sporting event. Still, the total amount wagered paled in comparison to the $132 million spent during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, according to figures shared with MarketWatch last November.

Prediction markets function like futures contracts, rewarding users based on the outcome of real-world events. Though popular, they are controversial. During the last U.S. election cycle, platforms faced criticism for their potential to sway public perception and even influence voter behavior. Advocacy groups have also questioned their regulatory oversight.

In an October interview with CNBC, Cantrell Dumas, Director of Derivatives Policy at Better Markets, said that large traders could potentially use such platforms to influence voter turnout on election day.

While Kalshi continues to offer bets on everything from political outcomes to pop culture developments, Polymarket remains off-limits to U.S. users due to regulatory restrictions imposed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

As with any form of gambling, experts urge caution. “Your betting money should be included in your entertainment budget,” said Jonathan Greeson, a certified financial planner in Pikeville, North Carolina. “Like with investing, we should never bet more than we are willing to lose.”