Analysts predict September to be another downer month for Macau
Wells Fargo analyst Cameron McKnight added:
“Based on checks we estimate that weekly ADR of US$ 104.2 million-110.3 million was up 4% at the midpoint from last week’s US$ 103.1 million, but down 6% from August’s US$ 114.2 million average. We expect a more precise estimate later in the week following the end of the Mid-Autumn festival (9/8 vs 9/20 last year). Following softer August VIP and total market growth, we believe expectations for September were around negative high-single digits.
Nomura Securities analyst Harry Curtis and team believe the September gross revenue will be a 6-11% decline, adding September is seasonally weak to start with:
September’s GGR is seasonally weak due to the end of summer and the pre-Golden Week (Golden Week is October 1-7) slowdown near the end of the month.
Macau names had another mini sell-off this month after August gross gaming revenue number disappointed on weak mass gaming revenue. In September, Las Vegas Sands fell 6.1%. Wynn Resorts retreated 4.2%. MGM Resorts) dropped 1.1%. Melco Crown fell 1%. For comparison purposes, the iShares China Large Cap ETF (FXI) gained 4.5% during the same period.
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