Goldman Sachs is more bullish. It estimates a 16%t gross gaming revenue growth in 2013, with VIP revenue up by 13 % and mass market expanding at a rate of 23 %.
Backing Goldman Sachs’ estimates are forecasts of a 7% increase in tourist visitation and 16 % jump in per-visitor gaming spending.
It says that the recent completion of the last stations on the Guangzhou-Zhuhai railway link should drive stronger visitation growth here.
The investment bank expects a strong recovery on the VIP side, driven by better macro-economic data and wealth creation from the mainland’s property market.
Offsetting these positives are the potential impact of the partial ban on smoking inside casinos, enacted on Tuesday, and anti-corruption initiatives by Beijing, Goldman Sachs says.