November gaming revenue trending up in Macau

“The slot inclusive gross gaming revenue run-rate puts November at us$ 3 billion or up 8 percent year-on-year, versus our 6 percent growth estimate,” Bain wrote. He noted that the completion of the leadership handover in the mainland earlier this month, at the Chinese Communist Party congress, could help push results up.

“The mainland’s orderly transition of power reduces political and other uncertainty, in our view. Combined with the potential for a rebounding China gross domestic product, we believe VIP gross gaming revenue trends may begin to show acceleration.”

Bain also added he is not expecting any “major fiscal adjustments such as substantial monetary easing or stimulus in the mainland” following the leadership change.

Commenting on the scheduled release of former 14K triad leader Wan Kuok Koi in December and its effect on Macau’s gaming sector, he downplayed the issue. “We anticipate headline risk, with little substantive disruption,” he said.

“The upcoming prison release of Mr Wan … is sure to grab some media headlines. There is some speculation that certain VIP operators, which were originally funded by Mr Wan, will ramp down or even depart Macau completely. However, our understanding is that authorities will be tightly monitoring Mr Wan after his long prison stay.”