International edition
September 26, 2021

Based on the first seven days of the month

Analysts predict September to be another downer month for Macau

(Macau).- Based on the first seven days of data, analysts from Nomura Securities to Wells Fargo expect Macau’s gross gaming revenue to decline again in September. Wells Fargo analyst Cameron McKnight now expects “negative high-single to low-double digit growth for September”.


ells Fargo analyst Cameron McKnight added:

“Based on checks we estimate that weekly ADR of US$ 104.2 million-110.3 million was up 4% at the midpoint from last week’s US$ 103.1 million, but down 6% from August’s US$ 114.2 million average. We expect a more precise estimate later in the week following the end of the Mid-Autumn festival (9/8 vs 9/20 last year). Following softer August VIP and total market growth, we believe expectations for September were around negative high-single digits.

Nomura Securities analyst Harry Curtis and team believe the September gross revenue will be a 6-11% decline, adding September is seasonally weak to start with:

September’s GGR is seasonally weak due to the end of summer and the pre-Golden Week (Golden Week is October 1-7) slowdown near the end of the month.

Macau names had another mini sell-off this month after August gross gaming revenue number disappointed on weak mass gaming revenue. In September, Las Vegas Sands fell 6.1%. Wynn Resorts retreated 4.2%. MGM Resorts) dropped 1.1%. Melco Crown fell 1%. For comparison purposes, the iShares China Large Cap ETF (FXI) gained 4.5% during the same period.

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