fter 10 years, the UBS team estimates, the Japanese market could grow to US$ 18.4 billion, assuming that there would be a casino in both Tokyo and Osaka and three outlying casino resorts.
Internationally, UBS sees little impact on Macau, because it draws mainly from China. The Philippines is expected to grow into a US$ 4.4 billion market by 2017 and Japan would have mixed results on the three publicly listed casino developers there, with Melco Crown having the least impact and Bloomberry’s Solaire the most at risk.
Korea could respond by liberalising its own gaming laws and becoming a stronger competitor, though the percentage of Japanese comprising the Korean market would fall from 20 to five, UBS thinks. If Korea does liberalise, the market could grow from US$ 2.3 billion to US$ 10 billion by 2020, UBS says.