aron Fischer, CLSA’s head of Asian gaming research, expects the local market to grow 20 % this year and 25 % in 2012.
Janet Brashear of Bernstein research is a little less bullish: she predicts a 17 % market growth for 2011. She notes that the limits on the number of gaming tables and the government reluctance in approving new casino projects could impact the growth rate, as well as possible new rules for VIP operators.
“There could easily be a 10 % swing in either direction,” Brashear wrote. “Government and economic variables abound however, which could alter the growth rate dramatically in either direction.”
Just looking to January, Sterne Agee analyst David Bain said a new monthly record could be set. If not, February is also a strong candidate because of the revenue boost related to the Chinese New Year holidays.
Macau just set a new monthly casino gross gaming revenue record in December, according to official data. With total revenue of us$ 2.314 billion, last month’s casino take beat the previous record of us$ 2.313 billion from October, by a small margin.